Communists Face Loss of Power in Russia's Elections
By Paul Starobin in Moscow,
Edited by Thane Peterson

December 20, 1999

The success of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's Unity Party puts him on track to replace Yeltsin, but the pro-business, pro-West pol still faces several obstacles, including Chechnya -- and Yeltsin himself -- in a presidential bid

After yesterday's State Duma elections, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin towers over Russia's political terrain. He has an opportunity to set a post-election agenda for a new, more Kremlin-friendly parliament -- and he has established himself as the front-runner to succeed lame duck Boris Yeltsin in the presidential election set for June, 2000. "Without any doubt, Putin is the favorite in the presidential race," says Igor Mintusov, a political consultant in Moscow.

The election's big losers: Moscow Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov and former Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov, whose new Fatherland-All Russia Party did much worse than expected.

With slightly more than 80% of the votes counted, the Putin-backed Unity Party, created by the Kremlin a few months ago to counter the Luzhkov-Primakov coalition, is running alongside the Communist Party in the popular Duma vote. Unity and the Communists are each garnering nearly 25% of the vote. Fatherland-All Russia is collecting only 12%.

Given the surprisingly good showing from the Unity-aligned Union of Right Forces (with 9% of the vote), the the balance of power in the Duma can be expected to shift from the Communists and their allies toward a Unity-led pro-government coalition.

"ECONOMIC LIBERAL." This should ease passage of Kremlin-supported initiatives that the Communists have thwarted. Although Putin has defined his program only in general terms, he is a supporter of a market economy backed by strong state intervention to promote and develop Russian industry. Western investors say they can work with him. "He is an economic liberal who has spent an enormous amount of time with Western investors listening to their concerns," says investment banker Charles Ryan, chairman of United Financial Group in Moscow.

However, Unity's robust performance reflects not so much a renewed public appetite for Western-style capitalism in Russia, but widespread approval of Putin's aggressive military campaign to subdue the rebel province of Chechnya. One sign that the election was about more than economic reform is that Yabloko, the party that has stood most clearly and consistently in favor of a pro-market policy over the last three Duma elections, did poorly yesterday. Preliminary results show it collecting 6% of the popular vote, down from 7% in 1995.

Many voters view Putin as a can-do leader who has asserted Russia's national interests at a time when the country has suffered from economic malaise and a loss of its Soviet-era clout in the global political arena. He's a media-savvy figure who has cultivated his image as a patriotic strongman. Three days before the election, Russian television displayed a white-robed Putin pinning his opponent to the mat in an exhibition of judo, in which he holds a black belt. Potential opposition to the war in Chechnya has been muted by the Kremlin's tight control of casualty figures and other information that could weaken support for the cause.

Putin's first test will be patching together a parliamentary coalition favorable to his aims. He will draw some support from the more than 100 independents expected to fill the new Duma, which convenes on Jan. 19. But declared pro-Kremlin blocs range from right-wing nationalists to Western-oriented free-marketeers who agree on little except opposition to the Communists. Having shown that he has the influence to attract votes, Putin now must display a talent for pragmatic governance.

There remain several possible obstacles to Putin's ascension to the presidency. One potential hurdle is the often capricious Yeltsin himself -- who in the past has become jealous of successful Prime Ministers and ousted them from office.

Another possible stumbling block is Chechnya. Although Russia's brutish assault on the province has damaged its image in the eyes of the U.S. and world opinion, Putin's persistence in the campaign in the face of such criticism has boosted his standing among many ordinary Russians, who like the idea of a leader who doesn't kowtow to the West. But the Chechens are fighters of proven resolve, capable of delivering a surprise blow to greener Russian forces. A military setback could puncture Putin's popularity at home.

WESTERN PUPPET? The Communists, moreover, can be expected to paint Putin as a puppet of greedy Russian and Western financiers. Putin is vulnerable to caricature because he is far from well-defined in the public's mind. Some voters see him as a shadowy figure -- a front man for the so-called "family" of Kremlin-connected power brokers, whose ranks include business titan Boris Berezovsky.

Still, no other powerhouse candidates have emerged. Communist Party Chairman Gennady Zyuganov is expected to run for President, but he was beaten by Yeltsin in the 1996 presidential race and nothing in yesterday's contest suggests that Russian voters aspire to be ruled by the Communists. Luzhkov, another possible candidate, remains highly popular in Moscow, whose citizens yesterday re-elected him as mayor with more than 70% of the vote, but the Duma election suggests his appeal outside the capital is limited. Primakov climbed in popularity during his nine-month tenure as Prime Minister, which ended in May, but at 70 years of age, he is a figure from a past generation.

Putin, who's only 47, represents a newer cadre of leaders. And, at least for now, he's the man to watch.